Two Harvard Business School professors (one current, one former) explain how calamitous events often catch leaders off guard despite prior awareness of the information necessary to anticipate them. Through an examination of well-known disasters such as the Enron debacle, the authors identify six warning signs that precede "predictable surprises" and explore the cognitive, organizational, and political biases that immobilize leaders. They then offer suggestions for overcoming these biases and building support for preventative action. Annotation ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com) Distributed by Syndetic Solutions, Inc.

Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. Distributed by Syndetic Solutions, Inc.

Preface	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xiii
1 What is a Predictable Surprise? A Preview	p. 1
Part I Prototypes of Predictable Surprises	p. 13
2 September 11: The Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise	p. 15
3 The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence	p. 43
Part II Why Don't We Act on What We Know?	p. 69
4 Cognitive Roots: The Role of Human Biases	p. 71
5 Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures	p. 95
6 Political Roots: The Role of Special-Interest Groups	p. 121
Part III Preventing Predictable Surprises	p. 153
7 Recognition: Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier	p. 157
8 Prioritization: Focusing on the Right Problems	p. 179
9 Mobilization: Building Support for Preventative Action	p. 203
10 Future Predictable Surprises	p. 225

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